New CAMS forecast combines information from observations and synthetic intelligence


The Copernicus Environment Monitoring Service (CAMS) has lately launched a brand new and revolutionary air high quality forecast product combining Synthetic Intelligence and observations, complementing the present European forecasts.

The “European Air High quality Forecasts Optimised at Remark Websites” depends on an AI method making use of the observations from the air high quality monitoring networks set-up by international locations throughout Europe and gathered by the European Atmosphere Company in actual time (or near actual time). This new product comes within the type of forecast timeseries for a number of lots of of monitoring website areas in Europe. It enhances the present CAMS gridded forecast and permits the availability of extra correct forecasts of regulated pollution * even for areas which are underneath the shut affect of native sources. The brand new product is referred as “CAMS-MOS,” primarily based within the numerical method (Mannequin Output Statistics) used to develop it.

To date, CAMS offered gridded air high quality forecasts, utilizing a unique-in-the-world multi-model method. The « legacy » CAMS forecasts are primarily based on an ensemble of 11 high –tier fashions operated by establishments throughout Europe that produce every day operational gridded forecasts utilizing superior chemistry-transport fashions (CTM). The efficiency and robustness of the CAMS multi-model ensemble is high quality assured on a routine foundation. All information are freely obtainable, along with detailed accompanying verification diagnostics. CAMS delivers hourly forecasts for a variety of pollution as much as 4 days prematurely anyplace in Europe, on the floor and as much as 5000 metres in altitude. Spatial decision of the product is about 10km x 10km, which signifies that native results can’t be represented: small air air pollution options influencing areas as small as 100m x 100m, just like the influence of a particular street or business, aren’t captured as an illustration.   

Illustration of the good thing about CAMS European Air High quality Forecasts Optimised at Remark Websites (MOS, pink), in comparison with the uncooked ENSEMBLE of Chemistry-Transport fashions (blue) and to observations (black) for a 96hr ozone forecast in June 2023, at a particular monitoring station in France.

The CAMS-MOS product proposes new and complementary kind of knowledge obtainable at websites the place in-situ measurements are routinely made. This new CAMS product relies on an revolutionary machine studying post-processing algorithm, that mixes the forecasts from the CAMS regional ensemble with air high quality observations and meteorological forecasts. The algorithm advantages from an automatic studying methodology, which adjusts the forecasts to the remark stations contemplating how gridded chemical forecasts evaluate with latest observations and considering additionally the particular meteorological scenario. Consequently, it’s attainable to offer correct forecasts even at websites the place the gridded CAMS forecasts aren’t spatially consultant or endure from systematic biases. On the flip aspect, forecasts can solely be produced for particular person areas the place observations are routinely acquired and they’re restricted to the floor stage. Going ahead, the standard scores of this new CAMS product can be routinely monitored and shared with customers, because it occurs at the moment with the gridded forecasts.

Illustration of the good thing about CAMS European Air High quality Forecasts Optimised at Remark Websites (MOS, pink), in comparison with the uncooked ENSEMBLE of Chemisty-Transport fashions (blue) and to observations (black) for a PM10 forecast in January 2004 averaging a number of stations.

Using superior statistical post-processing strategies unlocks new prospects for CAMS customers.

At present there may be high-quality info obtainable from CAMS remark websites that may very well be underneath the affect of native air pollution sources, with capability to seize and forecast exceedances of regulated thresholds. The mixture of CAMS gridded air high quality forecasts and the brand new CAMS air high quality forecasts optimised at remark websites, equips our customers to higher perceive the context, drivers and extent of air air pollution episodes in Europe.

Extra details about the methodology developed and applied by INERIS and Météo-France, as CAMS contractors for the event and implementation of European air high quality merchandise, is obtainable in a scientific paper. Each day forecasts optimised at remark website can be found in numerical kind on the Environment Information Retailer. Information may be retrieved as one-off utilizing a kind or mechanically via a easy script.


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